As if they hadn’t already been a thorn in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ sides, the Atlanta Falcons have a unique opportunity to end the Bucs’ four-year reign atop the NFC South.
Come again?
You’re probably thinking that the Falcons (6-9) had already been eliminated from playoff contention. This is true. You’re probably thinking that the Falcons had already salvaged a season split of their annual series with the Bucs after engineering a 29-28 upset in Tampa earlier this month. This is true.
You’re probably thinking the winner of the Week 18 contest between the Buccaneers (7-9) and Carolina Panthers (8-8) will win the division and advance as the NFC South’s only entry into the playoff field − Tampa Bay holding the pertinent common-games tiebreaker edge over Carolina.
Maybe.
That’s because the Falcons, who host the Los Angeles Rams on ‘Monday Night Football’ in Week 17, could still interject themselves into the mix, unlikely a scenario as it is.
First, give the Falcons credit given how easy it would have been to pack it in given a once-promising season went off the rails as they lost nine of their first 13 games, inconsistency and injuries to key players − like quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receiver Drake London − playing major roles in undermining the Dirty Birds. Atlanta hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2017. Yet they’ve won their past two games, starting with that unexpected victory at Raymond James Stadium on Dec. 11. And what that also means is that the Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers could all wind up with 8-9 records.
How does NFL break a three-way tie?
The league’s sometimes complex procedures for sorting out ties among teams with the same record apply differently to a division than to, say, three teams from different divisions chasing a wild-card berth. In this scenario, the determining tiebreaker would be:
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
If the Panthers were to lose to the Bucs in Week 18, they’d finish with a 3-1 collective record against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers would finish 2-2 in those games, while the Falcons would be 1-3 − ergo, Carolina’s 8-9 record would confer it the NFC South scenario under those circumstances.
How does NFL break a two-way tie?
Again, the rules apply differently to teams in the same division versus those that might have the same record from different ones. But if the Falcons don’t get to 8-9, but Carolina and Tampa Bay do, then the determining tiebreakers would be:
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). The Panthers and Bucs split in this scenario.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. The Panthers and Bucs would both be 3-3 in this scenario.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. The Panthers have a 5-7 record among common opponents, while the Bucs are 6-6 − meaning Tampa Bay would win the division if only tied with Carolina.
What do Rams have at stake in Week 17?
At this point? Not very much. The San Francisco 49ers’ win Sunday night ended any hopes the Rams had of winning the NFC West or the conference’s No. 1 seed. They’re assured of a wild card, the only remaining question whether they’ll be the No. 5 overall seed or the sixth. How does that inform how they approach the Atlanta game? TBD. However it’s worth noting that the fifth-seeded team will play either at Tampa or in Charlotte for the wild-card opener. That would seem favorable, though the Panthers beat the Rams in Week 13.
Regardless, suffice it to say that Buccaneers fans will be rooting for LA on Monday and, if need be, the New Orleans Saints in Week 18.