The outcomes of the Power Four conference championship games hinge on the final regular-season matchups.
An Alabama loss to Auburn could create an at-large College Football Playoff opportunity for teams in the Big 12 or ACC.
In the Big Ten, a scenario exists where four teams could potentially make the College Football Playoff.
After weeks of hypotheticals and guesswork, matchups in the Power Four conference championship games won’t be fully decided until after the final whistle of Saturday night’s Iron Bowl between No. 10 Alabama and Auburn.
That’s the game over Thanksgiving weekend with the most potential to deliver chaos to the College Football Playoff picture.
Beyond shaking things up in the SEC, an Alabama loss would open the door for an at-large playoff berth for the Big 12 or ACC. Teams that will be watching closely include Brigham Young, Miami and Utah, which are 11th, 12th and 13th in the College Football Playoff rankings, respectively.
For the last time, let’s break down the conference tiebreakers in the Power Four and in the American:
SEC conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Texas A&M (7-0), Georgia (7-1), Alabama (6-1), Mississippi (6-1).
Alabama is in with a win against Auburn. The Crimson Tide would play Texas A&M if the Aggies beat Texas or Georgia should the Longhorns win the rivalry matchup.
Georgia is guaranteed a spot in the championship game with an Alabama loss. The Bulldogs would meet the Aggies if they beat Texas.
If the Tide and A&M lose and Mississippi wins the Egg Bowl, it would be Georgia against the Rebels, who would edge out the Aggies because of a higher conference opponent winning percentage.
Big Ten conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Ohio State (8-0), Indiana (8-0), Oregon (7-1), Michigan (7-1).
We’d get the heavyweight pairing of unbeaten Big Ten teams if Ohio State snaps a four-game losing streak to Michigan and Indiana handles Purdue.
While extremely unlikely, an Indiana loss would still send the Hoosiers to Lucas Oil Stadium should Ohio State win due to their head-to-head win against Oregon.
But if both favorites lose, Oregon would be the regular-season Big Ten champion because of a win against Southern California. The Ducks would face Michigan because of the Wolverines’ tiebreaker against the Buckeyes.
Looking forward, that’s the scenario that could land four Big Ten teams in the tournament: conference champion Michigan, runner-up Oregon and the Buckeyes and Hoosiers.
Big 12 conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Texas Tech (7-1), Brigham Young (7-1), Utah (6-2), Arizona State (6-2).
Texas Tech wraps things up against West Virginia and BYU ends with Central Florida. Barring the unexpected, the Big 12 race should end with the Red Raiders and Cougars at least one game ahead of Utah and Arizona State.
If BYU loses, Texas Tech will face Arizona State if the Sun Devils take the Territorial Cup against Arizona. The Sun Devils’ earlier win against the Red Raiders will give them the tiebreaker over BYU.
If Tech loses, BYU would draw a rematch with the Utes, who have a head-to-head tiebreaker against ASU and a tiebreaker over the Red Raiders via a win against West Virginia.
Should Tech and BYU lose, the Cougars would backdoor into a rematch with Utah because of a better record against common conference opponents than the Sun Devils and Red Raiders.
ACC conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Virginia (6-1), Pittsburgh (6-1), SMU (6-1), Georgia Tech (6-2), Miami (5-2), Duke (5-2).
Virginia meets SMU with wins against Virginia Tech and California, respectively. Even if Pittsburgh beats Miami to leave a three-way tie, the Cavaliers and Mustangs advance because of the Panthers’ loss to Louisville.
In the case where SMU loses and all other favorites win, Duke would advance because of a higher conference opponent winning percentage than Miami, SMU, Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech.
To have five-loss Duke win the conference would likely mean the ACC ends up a one-bid league.
Should Virginia lose and all other favorites take care of business, SMU would face either Duke or Miami. Which team takes on the Mustangs will be determined by the “Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics,” according to the ACC.
Miami has a few possible ways into the conference championship.
Beat Pittsburgh while SMU and Duke lose, leading to a matchup against Virginia.
Beat Pittsburgh while SMU and Virginia lose, setting up a matchup against the Blue Devils.
Beat Pittsburgh while Virginia and Duke lose to meet SMU.
If Miami wins and SMU, Virginia and Duke lose, the Hurricanes would face either Georgia Tech or the Cavaliers depending on who wins between North Carolina State and North Carolina.
An N.C. State win would give Tech the edge over Virginia by virtue of conference opponent winning percentage; an N.C. State loss would give the Cavaliers the edge in the same category.
American conference tiebreakers
Contenders: North Texas (6-1), Tulane (6-1), Navy (6-1), South Florida (5-2), East Carolina (5-2).
The cleanest scenario has one of North Texas, Tulane and Navy losing to leave just two 7-1 teams atop the final standings. In this case, the conference champion is virtually assured of representing the Group of Five in the playoff ahead of one-loss James Madison.
In the case where all three win, Tulane is guaranteed a spot in conference title game by virtue of its No. 24 ranking in the College Football Playoff. North Texas would be the opponent due to its win against the Midshipmen. If one of the three lose, the other two would be locked in.
Should the two or three of the front-runners lose this weekend while South Florida and East Carolina win, there would be a multi-team tie that would be broken by a combination of the penultimate playoff rankings and the composite ranking of four computer metrics.