The second College Football Playoff rankings of the season will be defined by a shakeup in the top five.
Oregon and Ohio State will lead the way as they inch closer to a rematch in the Big Ten championship game. This will mark the first time two teams from the same conference have paced the second rankings release since Georgia and Alabama in 2021.
But Georgia and Miami are set to drop out of the top five after the Bulldogs were dominated in a road loss to Mississippi and the Hurricanes were upset by Georgia Tech. This second loss drops the Bulldogs into the logjam of teams battling for an SEC championship game appearance.
Miami’s first loss will bring the Hurricanes into a comparison with SMU to determine which team will lead the ACC. How the committee weighs these two contenders is one of the five biggest questions heading into Tuesday night’s rankings:
Who climbs into the top five?
Georgia and Miami will drop out — more on that in a moment — and open up two spots in the top five. It won’t be complicated decision: Penn State and Tennessee are set to make matching two-step moves up the ladder to join Oregon, Ohio State and Texas at the top of the rankings. The Volunteers won’t leapfrog ahead of Penn State after beating Mississippi State since the Nittany Lions’ win against Washington will be more impressive in the eyes of the committee.
How far does Georgia fall?
There are a number of factors at play when determining where Georgia will land. The team’s reputation with the committee will take a dent after a second SEC loss. The Bulldogs do have a win at Texas along with a neutral-site win against Clemson, which will be enough to keep them ahead of Mississippi despite the head-to-head loss. But Georgia won’t stay in front of Alabama, which looked terrific in a 41-13 win at LSU.
In the end, look for Alabama to climb two spots from the first rankings to No. 9. The Rebels were No. 16 a week ago and should surge into the top 12, displacing a pair of one-loss teams in Boise State and SMU. Georgia should come in at No. 10 but might drop to No. 11 and come in behind Miami.
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Does Miami remain atop the ACC?
That’s very likely despite a bad loss to Georgia Tech. Whether Miami should be the ACC leader is another question.
Both the Hurricanes and SMU have wins against Louisville and Duke. SMU also has wins against TCU and Pittsburgh along with a much better loss, by a field goal to Brigham Young in non-conference play. There is almost no doubt the Mustangs have the better résumé if the committee made a blind comparison.
But even as the committee says each week stands alone, the nine-spot gap in the rankings between these two teams is too much for SMU to overcome, especially after not playing this weekend. Miami should drop somewhere between No. 10 and No. 12 but stay one or two spots ahead of the Mustangs.
Will Indiana stay ahead of Brigham Young?
That’s probably going to happen even after the Hoosiers struggled offensively in a 20-15 win against Michigan. That was the first game this season the Hoosiers failed to score at least 31 points and the team’s first game decided by fewer than 14 points. BYU could’ve taken advantage of this situation by putting together a convincing road win in a rivalry game against Utah. But the Cougars barely escaped with a 22-21 win that included a controversial penalty that extended the game-winning drive. Look for the pair to rise in the rankings with the Hoosiers remaining in front at No. 6 and BYU right behind at No. 7.
How many Big Ten and SEC teams make the rankings?
The number would remain at a dozen even if the SEC loses one team from a week ago. The committee has the ammunition to dump LSU after back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Alabama by a combined 44 points. The Tigers could even be displaced by 8-2 Tulane, which dropped close games to Oklahoma and Kansas State in September but has rolled off seven wins in a row.
In the end, though, look for LSU to stay in the rankings to push the combined total between these two leagues to 13. One SEC team that should’ve been ranked last week but will almost certainly make the cut on Tuesday night is South Carolina. The Gamecocks are now 6-3 after a 28-7 win at Vanderbilt, their third victory in a row. They also have close losses to LSU (36-33) and Alabama (27-25). Missouri will hang around after pulling out a 30-23 win against Oklahoma.
The Big Ten won’t add a fifth team. Iowa and Minnesota might’ve been options had the Hawkeyes and Gophers not suffered bad losses to UCLA and Rutgers, respectively. The conference will have all four teams near the top, however: Oregon at No. 1, Ohio State at No. 2, Penn State at No. 4 and the Hoosiers at No. 6.