The College Football Playoff bracket includes controversies over Miami’s and James Madison’s inclusion.
Several teams face uncertainty due to coaching changes and potential player opt-outs.
The projection has Ohio State and Oregon in the national championship game.
The ink is dry on a College Football Playoff bracket defined by two controversies: Miami’s late jump into the last at-large spot at Notre Dame’s expense and James Madison’s inclusion over ACC champion Duke.
There are still a few unanswered questions about the bracket.
One is how Mississippi will fare under new coach Pete Golding. A second is teams dealing with coaches set to leave after the end of the year, including Tulane’s Jon Sumrall and James Madison’s Bob Chesney, recently hired at Florida and UCLA, respectively. Another is whether any teams will lose players to the transfer portal or as early opt-outs for the NFL draft.
With the opening round set for later this month, let’s project how the playoff will play out:
First-round game predictions
No. 5 Oregon 41, No. 12 James Madison 17: This matchup feels reminiscent of Oregon’s rout of Liberty two years ago in the Fiesta Bowl. While JMU has been a Group of Five juggernaut, the gap in talent is profound enough to require something resembling a miracle to pull off the upset as roughly three-touchdown underdogs.
No. 6 Mississippi 35, No. 11 Tulane 14: The first of two rematches in the opening round could follow the same script as the previous meeting, a 45-10 win by the Rebels. But there’s a question about how they’ll look with Golding replacing LSU-bound Lane Kiffin, so don’t be surprised if the Green Wave make things more competitive the second time around.
No. 10 Miami 24, No. 7 Texas A&M 23: Miami is surging into the postseason while A&M had a rough close, beating South Carolina by a point with the biggest comeback in school history and then dropping its rivalry game against Texas. The Hurricanes have the size, physicality and speed at the skill positions to pull out a narrow win.
No. 9 Alabama 21, No. 8 Oklahoma 16: Oklahoma won the earlier matchup in Tuscaloosa, sparking the Sooners’ late rebirth as a playoff contender. Look for this one to be a low-scoring, defense-focused affair defined by which team wins the turnover battle. That favors the Tide, but only barely.
Quarterfinal games
Oregon 38, No. 4 Texas Tech 31 (Cotton Bowl): This should be the most frenetic matchup of the quarterfinals, pitting two teams more than happy to play at an up-tempo pace. The Ducks played their best football in November; you could say the same about the Red Raiders. Here’s guessing Oregon has enough firepower to overcome Tech’s depth and aggressive style.
No. 3 Georgia 28, Mississippi 20 (Sugar Bowl): Hey, another rematch. Georgia beat the Rebels during the regular season and would be heavily favored to so again in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs major improvement on defense gives them the edge.
No. 2 Ohio State 33, Miami 17 (Orange Bowl): We’ll see if heading into the postseason on the heels of a tough loss will trigger another Ohio State national championship. Miami has the overall talent to match up favorably with the Buckeyes but could be bottled up by the nation’s best defense.
Semifinal games
Oregon 30, Indiana 20 (Peach Bowl): Indiana beat Oregon on the road earlier in the year. For the Ducks, the keys to flipping the script are trimming turnovers, setting themselves up for more manageable third downs and protecting Dante Moore after giving up six sacks and eight tackles for loss in the early meeting.
Ohio State 24, Georgia 10 (Fiesta Bowl): This one would be a physical slog at the line of scrimmage defined by Georgia’s ability to control the clock and keep the Buckeyes’ offense on the sidelines. The Bulldogs will also need to deliver big plays on defense and special teams to set up shorter fields for their own offense. Ohio State would have more margin for error in this matchup.
National championship game
Ohio State 37, Oregon 28: Oregon is looking to follow Ohio State’s blueprint from last season by failing to win the Big Ten and then rolling off four wins in a row to claim the first national championship in program history. That’s a tall order. Look for Ohio State to learn from the loss to Indiana and repeat as national champions