Week 13 served as table setter for the bigger stakes ahead in the College Football Playoff race. Thanksgiving weekend will settle the fates of teams hope for at-large spots in the field and also those that are fighting conference championships.
Not much changed to the projected playoff field in this week’s bowl projections. SMU moved in as the ACC representative after Georgia Tech fell by the wayside. The rest of the teams held serve, pushing all the chips into what will happen in Week 14.
There’s no playoff drama for Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia. They’re all in regardless of their results, though the Buckeyes and Aggies both have huge rivalry matchups against Michigan and Texas, respectively, that could knock them out of conference title games. Should the Wolverines or Longhorns win those matchups, they’d have the potential to work their way into the field.
Texas Tech, Oregon, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Notre Dame all enter the weekend needing wins to confirm their spots. Alabama must beat Auburn, which puts the Crimson Tide in the SEC title game and provides an opportunity to improve their seeding.
On teams on outside of the projected field needing victories and help include Utah, Vanderbilt and the aforementioned duo of Texas and Michigan.
There’s also uncertainty for the rest of the bowl picture with 82 teams needed to fill out the 41 games in the postseason lineup. With one week to go, there are 72 teams already with the requisite six wins. That does not include Missouri State, which is ineligible with the Bears in their first year transitioning from the Championship Subdivision.
There are 21 teams with five victories playing this weekend with three matchups among teams in that group. That guarantees 75 spots filled with seven more required. Should not enough teams win this weekend, Missouri State and possibly Delaware could earn spots as transition teams. If there are still places available, 5-7 teams with the best Academic Progress Rates will be first in line.
Notes: Not all conferences will fulfill their bowl allotment. An asterisk represents a replacement pick. Legacy Pac-12 schools in other conferences will fulfill existing Pac-12 bowl agreements through the 2025 season.