The second round of College Football Playoff rankings reaffirmed the possibility that the SEC sends not one, two, three or even four teams into the tournament but possibly five — or even six, if things get really crazy.
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana continue to lead the rankings out of the Big Ten. But then comes a parade of contenders from the SEC, starting with No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 4 Alabama, No. 5 Georgia and No. 7 Mississippi.
All four teams are potentially one more conference win away from locking down at-large playoff berths, though the Rebels might face elimination with a loss to Florida or Mississippi State.
This group is followed by three more prime contenders in No. 10 Texas, No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 14 Vanderbilt. The Longhorns can play their way in by splitting games against Georgia and Aggies. Oklahoma has a huge game at Alabama followed by home contests with Missouri and LSU. Vanderbilt’s chances will come down to the season finale against Tennessee.
At this point, having four SEC teams in the bracket seems guaranteed. At the same time, the ACC and Big 12 might end up as one-bid leagues. Even if those two leagues share three bids, there’s an opportunity for the SEC to make up half of the 12-team field.
That puts the conference front and center among the biggest winners and losers of Tuesday night’s rankings, joining South Florida and the ACC:
Winners
Indiana
The Hoosiers were able to stay ahead of Texas A&M despite of — or because of, from one perspective — last weekend’s 27-24 escape at Penn State. While the Aggies had no issues taking care of Missouri, the Hoosiers were able to pull down the first win at Beaver Stadium in program history, something the committee clearly recognized as meaningful despite the narrow victory. Remaining in the No. 2 spot solidifies Indiana’s near-lock status with games against Wisconsin and Purdue to end the month.
South Florida
South Florida squeezed into the rankings at No. 24 as the only Group of Five representative, giving the Bulls a clear edge for an automatic playoff bid should they take care of business and win the American. Given games against Navy and the second-best team in the American for the conference championship, USF is essentially a lock for the No. 12 seed in the bracket with a clean finish. Looking ahead, placing in the rankings is a huge deal given that in the case of a multiple-team tie atop the standings, the championship game pairings could end up being decided by which team or teams were in the penultimate rankings and where.
Texas Tech
Saturday’s 29-7 win against No. 12 Brigham Young moved Texas Tech up two spots to No. 6, leapfrogging ahead of Mississippi. While the clearest path to the playoff remains via the Big 12 championship, the Red Raiders have built up enough wiggle room and goodwill with the committee to potentially survive a loss to BYU in a Big 12 title game rematch and earn an at-large bid, though that might come down to whether or not the Big Ten has a fourth team in the conversation.
Notre Dame
No. 9 Notre Dame must win out, starting on Saturday at No. 22 Pittsburgh, but are now firmly in at-large position after climbing one spot from last week’s rankings. With both the ACC champion and Group of Five representatives potentially finishing outside the top 12 in the final rankings, climbing inside the top nine at this point guarantees the Fighting Irish will make the playoff for the second year in a row with a perfect close to the regular season.
Losers
The ACC
For the second week in a row, there’s no bigger loser in the playoff rankings than the ACC. After a horrific weekend that included losses by No. 19 Virginia, No. 20 Louisville and Duke, the league’s highest-ranked teams are No. 15 Miami and No. 16 Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers and Cardinals both dropped five spots from last week. While No. 15 Miami and Pittsburgh give the ACC five teams in Top 25, these rankings strongly suggest only the conference champion will make the bracket unless the Yellow Jackets win the conference, the Hurricanes run the table and there is chaos ahead. That USF made the rankings helped the Hurricanes climb three spots and definitely breathes some life into their chances.
BYU
The five-spot drop from last week leaves BYU only one clear path to the playoff: via the Big 12 championship. There’s a chance for an at-large bid, though that demands not just a perfect finish to November, complete with a win against No. 25 Cincinnati, but also help from bottom-feeders in the SEC and Big Ten to clear an avenue for a second team from the Big 12. In addition to that assistance, the Cougars would need to put together a much stronger and competitive performance in the rematch with Texas Tech.