If it’s true that you can’t predict baseball, there’s probably a greater maxim contained within that: You can’t predict what course the San Diego Padres will take at the trade deadline.
The Padres provided a bolt from the blue of what was a largely rote trade deadline by acquiring dominant closer Mason Miller and back-end starter J.P. Sears from the Athletics, with a four-player package headed by elite prospect Leo De Vries off to Sacramento.
The deal can’t be fully assessed until the clock strikes 6 ET on July 31, since the Padres positioned themselves to both buy and sell – perhaps trading incumbent closer Robert Suarez – at a deadline in which they hold the No. 3 NL wild card spot but are also just three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the West.
Still, we’ll attempt to assess this trade in a vacuum, even if the following grades are just a little bit incomplete:
Mason Miller trade grades
Padres grade: B
It’s quite a coup getting both the game’s most dominant closer and a guy with four years of club control remaining after this season. Miller, 26, is generally untouchable in the ninth inning and in two seasons as A’s closer has nailed down 48 of 54 save opportunities, an 89% conversion rate on par with Hall of Famers Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.
Miller has struck out 40% of batters in that span, and opposing batters are hitting .161 against him. That’s merely lifting the lid on his overall dominance.
In Sears, the Padres get a former Yankees prospect who’s had to pitch toward the front of the A’s rotation even as his stuff indicates he should be further down the pecking order. The expectations and the pitching conditions will be friendlier in San Diego, though the lefty with the 4.95 ERA this year (4.48 career) might see those expectations rise if the Padres turn and deal erstwhile ace Dylan Cease.
The cost? It’s huge. De Vries is the most significant international signing the Padres have had this decade, no small honor, and he’s consistently been challenged – and succeeded – at levels where the average player is four to five years older than him. Put simply: Not many 17-year-olds flash power and speed in stateside A ball and go on to the Arizona Fall League, as De Vries did in 2024.
While Miller’s controllable years mean the Padres can flip him in future seasons for either immediate help or to galvanize their system, it still stings to trade a potential (likely?) franchise player for a reliever.
Athletics grade: A
The deal begs one dark question: Will any of their young stars make it to Las Vegas, should they ever complete their ballpark there?
It’s yet another step back at the big league level for the A’s in a five-year cycle of utter desiccation that hastened their move from Oakland. And it’s perhaps not a coincidence that Miller was dealt months before he entered the first of four years of salary arbitration.
But man, what a return. Given De Vries’ speed on the uptake wherever the Padres put him – he’s got eight homers, eight steals and a .357 OBP at high A Fort Wayne this year – he has a shot to debut in the big leagues while still a teenager.
And since it’s the A’s, he also has a shot to reach Sacramento/Las Vegas/Winnemucca by the time star rookies Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz haven’t gotten too expensive for owner John Fisher’s taste.
As a cherry on top, the A’s received right-handed pitchers Braden Nett, Eduarniel Nuñez and Henry Báez, ranked seventh, 14th and 16th by Baseball America in the Padres’ system. Nuñez, 26, has already made his major league debut, making four relief appearances for San Diego, while Nett (23, 3.39 ERA in 17 starts) and Báez (22, 1.96 ERA in 20 starts) are with Class AA San Antonio.
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