The Cleveland Guardians are facing an American League Championship Series deficit that has proven to be almost historically insurmountable.
And that’s before we even consider how outmanned they appear against the New York Yankees.
Is the Guardians’ season cooked? It’s hard to imagine any other outcome – but let’s ponder the notion, anyway.
“This is who we are,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said after his club kept sending the potential tying or go-ahead runs to the plate in Game 2 of this ALCS, only to lose 6-3 at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. “We’ve lost two games. That’s true. We have an opportunity to go home, play in front of our fans.
“This is who this baseball team is. We don’t quit. We kept fighting. We did it again (Tuesday). I’m excited to get home to Cleveland and play in front of our fans.”
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Will a blast of cool Lake Erie air be the salve for this club? Let’s explore whether the Guards are wise to keep hope alive:
The odds: Not in their favor
Let’s just get this out of the way: Teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven league championship series have gone on to win 32 of 37 times, or 86.5%. The last team to beat the odds was the 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers, who roared back from NLCS deficits of 2-0 and 3-1 to the Atlanta Braves to capture the pennant and eventually World Series amid the COVID-19 bubble in Texas.
Leverage: The Guardians’ long-lost friend
Not sure if watching movies on the plane ride home to motivate the lads is a thing anymore, but the Guardians might have considered Sylvester Stallone’s chemically-enhanced 1987 classic Over The Top for inspiration.
More than almost any contender, they excel when they have the upper hand.
Yet Cleveland has not led in any inning of this ALCS so far, foiling their chances to deploy their best weapons in high-leverage spots – and desperately burning them to try to get back in the game.
Their Game 2 loss exemplified what they’re up against.
Cleveland started its nominal ace, Tanner Bibee, who gave them at least four innings in two AL Division Series starts and needed to expend at least that much more given the club will be without right-hander Alex Cobb for the rest of the postseason after a lower back strain.
But Bibee quickly stuck them in a 2-0 hole in the second inning, forcing Vogt to do the theoretically unthinkable: Intentionally walk Juan Soto to load the bases for Aaron Judge.
It made sense when the accompanying move was to summon Cade Smith, their top relief asset and a crucial ingredient in their postseason formula – even though it was the second inning. The move was wise: Smith induced a Judge sacrifice fly and escaped the jam with a workable 3-0 lead.
But Smith is best employed when the Guardians have the lead, and are counting outs, and want to take down the opposition’s middle of the order. By the third inning of Game 2, he was done for the night.
The desperation came to the surface again an inning later, when a walk and two singles (one more a Yankees error) enabled Cleveland to load the bases against New York ace Gerrit Cole in the fourth, still down just 3-0. Vogt played his high card then, tossing ALDS hero David Fry up to pinch hit for catcher Bo Naylor.
“It was the highest leverage moment of the game, bases loaded, one out,” says Vogt. “We want to take a shot with David. We wanted to take our shot right there. We felt that was our biggest opportunity at that point. You don’t know when you’re going to get three guys on against somebody like Gerrit Cole.”
Right call, wrong execution: Fry hacked at the first pitch and popped it up, fouling out to third base. After Brayan Rocchio stared at strike three, the threat was over. Cole, who allowed 10 baserunners in 4 ⅓ innings, had wriggled free.
And perhaps most important, Fry was done for the night and backup catcher Austin Hedges, who batted .152 this year, was locked into the No. 8 hole. That reared its head an inning later, when Cleveland clawed to within 3-2 and had the tying run on first.
No sweat for the Yankees. Reliever Clay Holmes simply tossed four balls to Andrés Giménez, welcomed Hedges to the plate, and struck him out. And a 3-2 game stayed that way before the Yankees stretched it to 4-2 and eventually 6-2 on Aaron Judge’s home run.
“It’s who we are,” says a properly remorseless Vogt. “We take chances when we do.”
Winning without a rotation?
The starting pitching disparity in this ALCS has only been exacerbated since it tipped off. Cobb’s ineffective start and subsequent injury now leads Cleveland short a potential Game 5 starter; Bibee’s inability to complete two innings put them in another bind but now raises the notion that the right-hander’s 39-pitch outing might make him available for another start sooner.
Yet there’s simply no end in sight to the disadvantage.
Lefty Matthew Boyd will start Game 3, and he matched presumed Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal pitch for pitch over 4 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 2 of the ALDS. Yet he only got six outs in Game 5 and pitched just 39 ⅔ regular season innings after recovering from injury.
New York? It will counter with the reliable Clarke Schmidt, who turned in an effective Game 3 ALDS start that turned that series in its favor. Schmidt also posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts this year.
He’s already familiar with Progressive Field in October, making two relief appearances in the 2022 ALDS there.
“Pitching on the road with fans coming at your throat, it’s kind of fun to be able to have the ability to silence them whenever you want if you get the job done,” Schmidt said Wednesday on a video call, before the club departed for Cleveland
Says Yankees manager Aaron Boone: “He’s gotten better and better each and every year. That’s been really cool to witness, but it starts with a foundation of confidence because he’s really talented.”
Boyd is, too, to be certain. Yet there is once again a ceiling on what he might be capable of – and the likelihood the Cade Smiths and Hunter Gaddises from the bullpen will be summoned far earlier than Vogt might prefer.
Game 4? The Yankees are taking the postseason wraps off Luis Gil, the AL’s best rookie pitcher who’s had 19 days to ramp up for this assignment. Bibee might be back by then for Cleveland.
Get the sense this is getting out of control?
Guardians: Still a good baseball team
Their sinkhole of the moment has obscured a few positives. Steven Kwan has extended his postseason hitting streak to 12 games, knocking Kenny Lofton out of Cleveland’s record book, and is batting .448 (13 for 29), his 13 hits trailing only Mets rookie Mark Vientos’ 14 in these playoffs.
They’ve forced the Yankee bullpen into “close-and-late” situations in every seventh through ninth innings. Vogt is correct to assert that by continuing to press, the Guardians may soon find a breakthrough.
‘We love playing in front of our fans,’ Vogt said Wednesday, back home in Cleveland. ‘I think for us, knowing we have three games here, we feel really good about it. Obviously we would have loved to have taken one in NewYork, but we still feel really good about our chances.’
Even as the odds only continue getting longer.