It’s the start of a new year, but the NFL regular season is still winding down.
And the penultimate week, Week 17, helped clarify the playoff picture in both the AFC and NFC.
To that end, the No. 1 seeds, which include a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout, were both awarded. The Baltimore Ravens destroyed the Miami Dolphins in what had been billed as a heavyweight battle of AFC contenders. The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, handled their business in a routine victory over the Washington Commanders, but it was a stunning upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, who lost to an Arizona Cardinals team that entered Sunday with just three victories, that clinched the top berth for the 49ers.
WINNERS
Lamar gets his MVP moment and Ravens are the class of the AFC (and maybe the NFL)
The best team in the AFC, the Ravens, are peaking at the right time, obliterating two of the better teams in the NFL in consecutive weeks while exhibiting all the ingredients needed for a Super Bowl run. Baltimore (13-3) has a physical, stifling defense that has neutralized the 49ers and Dolphins, perhaps the two teams with the most speed in the NFL (aside from the Ravens). Baltimore has a veteran coaching staff that has molded its scheme to fit its players. And it also has the best player in the NFL.
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Quarterback Lamar Jackson, the odds-on favorite to win the Associated Press Most Valuable Player, was sensational in a 56-19 rout of the Dolphins, completing 18 of 21 passes for 321 yards with five touchdowns while adding 35 rushing yards. The Ravens gave Jackson plenty of time to operate, they’re playing with immense confidence, have a versatile attack, and now the AFC runs through the Charm City.
Miami’s slide is Buffalo’s gain
The winner of the season finale in Miami Gardens is for the AFC East title and for the No. 2 berth in the conference. The Bills still need to do a far better job of limiting giveaways (quarterback Josh Allen has only one turnover-free game in Buffalo’s last 12) but this is a series that Buffalo has absolutely dominated. Over their last 11 meetings, the Bills have won all but one.
The Packers take control
Green Bay (8-8) took advantage of several breakdowns in the Minnesota Vikings secondary for a massive 33-10 win that now puts the Packers in control of their playoff fates. If they beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon, they will be in thanks to the Seattle Seahawks’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Quarterback Jordan Love (24-of-33 passing for 256 yards and four total touchdowns) was sensational, delivering the ball in stride to receivers who leaked out into open space. The defense, even with starting corners Eric Stokes (hamstring) and Jaire Alexander (suspension) missing the game, clamped down Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson and frustrated quarterbacks Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens. This is a young team that has had a solid and productive − if uneven − campaign. A deep playoff run may be unlikely, but this is exactly the type of experience that can set the Packers up for the future.
Chaos in the AFC South
The division often draws ridicule for fielding weaker teams, but the AFC South has the chance to give NFL fans a beautifully chaotic ending in Week 18. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans all have the same record (9-7). Jacksonville is currently in the division lead, with the Colts sitting in the last wild-card slot and the Texans just on the outside, looking in, at No. 8.
The Texans travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts on Saturday; the winner of that game is guaranteed a wild-card berth. But if the Jaguars, who are facing the Titans, somehow lose, then the winner of the Houston-Indy matchup would take the division crown. Either way, the Texans-Colts battle will be high-stakes drama that offers everything we love about do-or-die in sports. Credit the NFL schedule-makers for giving it standalone, prime-time treatment in the Saturday evening slot. And the matchup puts even more pressure Sunday on Jacksonville.
LOSERS
The Eagles were already in the playoffs, yes, but they’re in deep trouble
Philadelphia (11-5) has now lost four of its last five games, the latest in a 35-31 surprise to a rebuilding Cardinals team. Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon was the defensive coordinator of the Eagles the previous two seasons, so he’s quite familiar with Philadelphia’s operation. But Sunday’s loss was evidence of more systemic issues that plague the Eagles.
For one, the defense has been gashed, especially on the ground, with the Cardinals rolling up 221 yards on them. In fact, in their last seven games, the Eagles have not held an opponent to fewer than 100 rushing yards and have allowed 150.3 rushing yards per game in that span. The Eagles also have given the ball away 11 times in their last seven games. They came into Week 17 with a one-game lead in the NFC East. Now, if the Cowboys (11-5) and Eagles both win their respective season finales, Dallas will be the NFC East winner.
Seahawks yield ground, perhaps irreparably so
Seattle’s path was simple: win out and get in. But the Steelers ran all over the Seahawks, piling up 202 yards on the ground, so the Seahawks (8-8) were bounced to the outskirts of the NFC playoff picture. Now, Seattle must win its finale against the Cardinals and hope that the Packers lose to the Bears (7-9).
The passing game for Seattle simply hasn’t been as productive, or as explosive, as it was last season, but the rushing attack is what has been most disappointing. They missed tackles, couldn’t extend drives and allowed explosive plays in the passing game. In all honesty, though, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Seahawks have now lost six of their last nine games. Their average margin of victory in the four games they have won since Week 8, is 3.25 points per game. Their dependence on comebacks and slim margin for error was unsustainable. Now, it almost certainly will keep them out of the postseason.
Kenny Pickett
This is a simple truth: the Steelers’ offense is better with Mason Rudolph starting. The No. 20 overall selection in the 2022 NFL draft, Kenny Pickett has missed the last four games as he’s recovering from an ankle injury. Mitchell Trubisky struggled in his time in relief of Pickett but Rudolph has shined.
The Steelers (9-7) are 2-0 in both games Rudolph has started. The downfield passing game, in particular for athletic receiver George Pickens, has blossomed. While the ground game was the primary factor, Pittsburgh’s yardage total Sunday against the Seahawks, 468, was easily the team’s season high. The point total in the last two games, 34 and 30, also present season-high marks; the previous was a Week 2, 26-point showing against the Cleveland Browns. With a slim chance at the playoffs − Pittsburgh essentially needs to win against the Ravens and for the Jaguars to lose − there’s no way Pickett should be playing over Rudolph, even if he’s fully healthy.
The Bucs, again, go cold at home
First things first, Tampa Bay (8-8) still has an inside track at the NFC South title. All it needs to do is beat the 2-14 Carolina Panthers next week and the Buccaneers will host a playoff game. That may be a problem. With the chance to clinch the division on the line, Tampa Bay fell to 4-4 this season at Raymond James Stadium, this time against a New Orleans Saints team that has been inconsistent all season long.
But, if the Buccaneers − who are 1-6 this season against teams currently above .500 − lose next week, the winner of the Saints-Falcons game will take the division. But even if the Bucs do win their third consecutive NFC South title, there are problems. Tampa Bay’s rushing game, as it has been all season, recorded just 57 yards on 15 carries against the Saints. Baker Mayfield and the offense didn’t make a single trip inside the red zone. These are traits of a team not ready for a postseason run.