Democratic senators from across the political spectrum have sidestepped the question of whether they would support Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) if she runs for a second term, underscoring how her surprise decision to leave the Democratic Party has thrust Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and his colleagues into a tough spot.
While Sinema has not said whether she plans to seek another term in 2024, Democrats are bracing for the possibility that she will run as an independent, her new political affiliation, and face off against a Democratic nominee in the general election, potentially boosting the Republican candidate in the race and messily dividing the party in a presidential election year.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said he has been preparing for a run and would decide after the holidays if he will seek the Democratic nomination for Senate. The looming three-way scenario for Democrats means Schumer could face pressure to decide whether he and the national party apparatus would back Sinema as an incumbent even against a Democratic nominee, sit out the race or endorse the winner of the Democratic primary.
It is a delicate political question that spooked Senate Democrats on Monday. Schumer’s office did not respond to a request for comment on the issue. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the outgoing chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, declined to say whether he believes Democrats should endorse Sinema for reelection if she runs again. “Right now I am going to keep working with Senator Sinema,” he said.
Other Senate Democrats from across the country and the ideological continuum dodged the hypothetical scenario in Arizona that could create divisions in their party. “I plan to stay out of Arizona politics,” said Sen. Richard J. Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Democrat in the chamber. “I am not focused on that,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said. “I am focused on what we have to do in the next two weeks.”
“I will answer that when she decides what she is going to do,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said. Even Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) declined to answer whether he would support his fellow home state senator should she run as an independent. “You are getting into hypotheticals,” he said. “But I have worked very closely with her for a long period of time.”
Schumer has yet to announce a new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, and that job has become even more difficult with the potential for a three-way race in Arizona. The 2024 campaign cycle was already seen as a challenging one for Democrats, with elections in red and purple states including West Virginia and Montana.
There, Senate Democratic incumbents Joe Manchin III and Jon Tester have not yet announced whether they will be running again. On Monday, Manchin told reporters he was not ruling out switching parties himself, though he said he did not plan to do so right now.
Also on Monday, Gallego told The Washington Post he would make his decision next year, after speaking to his family over the holidays. “I have been very clear, I have been preparing for this,” he said. Gallego dismissed the idea that if both he and Sinema ran it would split the Democratic vote and boost a Republican into office, saying, “Republicans are the ones who have a problem holding their base in Arizona.”
Rodell Mollineau, a Democratic strategist who once served as an aide to former Senate majority leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.), said backing independent senators as incumbents has precedent, if Sinema continues to largely vote with Democrats. Democrats have supported Sens. Angus King (I-Maine) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who caucus with them, in their races.
“If this is framed as incumbent protection I think the caucus will be with them,” Mollineau said. But he pointed out there is a lot about the situation that will be outside the hands of Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, including how the state party, donors and activists feel about the race.
The Arizona Democratic Party declined to comment on whether it would back a Democratic nominee for the seat, pointing to its statement on Friday that slammed Sinema after she announced her decision. “Senator Sinema may now be registered as an independent, but she has shown she answers to corporations and billionaires, not Arizonans,” the party said in a statement. “Senator Sinema’s party registration means nothing if she continues to not listen to her constituents.”
In a video explaining her decision to leave the Democratic Party, Sinema said: “Registering as an independent and showing up to work with the title of independent is a reflection of who I have always been, and it is a reflection of who Arizona is.” She added, “We do not line up to do what we are told. We do what is right for our state and for our country.”
Joseph I. Lieberman, the former independent senator from Connecticut, cautioned that Sinema’s party switch will not necessarily make it easier for her to win if she runs in 2024, though he said he thinks she can prevail. “It is always harder to run as an independent in America,” he said.
But even Lieberman, a longtime Democrat who switched parties after losing a Democratic primary in 2006, declined to get into how Schumer should handle a potential three-way race and whether Democrats should try to discourage a challenger like Gallego in the meantime.
“I think it is a good thing for Senate Democrats and a good thing for our country that Kyrsten Sinema as an independent senator be in the Senate,” he said. “But I would not go so far as to presume to tell Chuck or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee what they should or can do.”
Marianna Sotomayor and Theodoric Meyer contributed to this report.